I'm not sure how I can put to words what I feel at the moment. I just saw on Al-Jazeera the horror of dead bodies laying everywhere on the street after Israel bombed a UN school filled with children and innocent civilians. They thought this place would be a safe shelter from the daily bombardment and sadly once again we see the savage cruelty of the Zionist menace that respects no safe haven for anyone. It was a horrific scene of dead babies, women and men - young and old. Blood everywhere and body parts galore filled the street as people wailing and weeping over lost loved ones cried out to the heavens in abject hysteria. I don't know what to say, anger is hardly adequate, deep sadness for sure, horror obviously, but more than that there was a deep gut wrenching sickening feeling that defies explanation. It's as though the world came to an end and time stood still to defy the laws of nature. As my mind raced with nothingness and emotions overwhelmed with numbness, I didn't want to believe what I was seeing. My anger towards the Israeli's seemed to know no bound. What is to be said when such horrific scenes have been occurring with consistent regularity since Israel was created. The list of massacres by the Israeli's against the Palestinians is too long to mention. I can see no answer that leaves Israel intact. This latest brutal war crime makes the case for the total dismantlement of this rogue regime by any means necessary. This kind of butchery and barbarism has gone on for too long and Palestinians have suffered too great. Israel has gone beyond a terrorist state, a pariah state and a rogue regime, Israel is man made disaster waiting to happen. We can no longer ignore the long record of war crimes perpetuated by Zionists. These disasters unfolding before our eyes are man made - the refuge catastrophe that has befallen the Palestinians - their perpetual oppression and torment and everything from starving, imprisoning, terrorizing and slaughtering them seems to pass the kosher test in Zion.
Israel forfeited it's very existence years ago and these ongoing crimes only strengthen the case for it's total dismantlement. There can be no doubt now - not that there ever was in my view - but these latest massacres and daily onslaught makes this an open and shut case that no sane person in good conscience can deny.
IF THE SKIES FALL: Middle East Politics and More.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Friday, January 2, 2009
Kicking the can down the street
It's a new year and sadly not much has changed with developments on ground in Gaza. Israel continues to bomb at will with impunity - and with the worlds deafening silence if not bold complicity in certain parts. I'm of course referring to Egypt,Jordan,Saudi Arabia and the EU. All seem to know their marching orders and no one has disappointed yet. On the political front in America it seems Bush has parroted his routine line of "we support Israel" and basically kicked the can down for Obama to deal with. Rice is not going anywhere to try to bring about a ceasefire. There is no real effort to pressure Israel to do anything and every one is content to watch Palestinians continue to get slaughtered. Obama for his part has remained shockingly silent through all of this - in essence kicking the can back to Bush saying "there is only one President" at a time. This would be comical if not for the fact people are getting killed and slaughtered by an unmerciful blitzkrieg style attack. The Arab world once again has been shamed to levels that should make every Arab with an ounce of dignity cringe at the leadership that exists today. I can't think of anything good to say about Egypt,Jordan or Saudi Arabia - and Syria for that matter. The anger from what I have been able to discern at the street level in these countries appears to be boiling over but not sure how it will manifest itself in the coming days, weeks or months ahead. These regimes are tenacious when it comes to clamping down on descent. Already there are reports Mubarak has been arresting Islamists and other activists who want to demonstrate publicly against Israeli action. In Saudi Arabia, there are similar reports - authorities have been arresting Imams who issued Fatwas against Egypt for not opening the Rafah crossing. In Jordan, head of security has been replaced and government there is clamping down on public protests against Israel by arresting dozens. In Palestine, in Ramallah, Abbas thugs were using batons against marchers who came out to show support for Hamas. The clamp down there and elsewhere in the Arab world is intensifying. I don't know if these efforts by these puppet regimes will succeed but history has not been kind to those who bet on their imminent downfall. As I said, these regimes are ruthless and will tenaciously hold on to power no matter what - and with the help of CIA and Mossad - not sure we can write them off just yet. Having said that, I do believe this time around something different is percolating beneath the surface on the Arab street. It's one thing in the past to be viewed as impotent against Israeli crimes - remain silent as Zionists massacre fellow Arabs and Muslims - but this time around the Arab regimes are viewed as aiding the Zionist enemy, complicit and working hand in hand with the likes of OBL and company (Olmert,Barack and Livni) and this factor does present a new dimension that before wasn't quite crystallized as it is now. Arabs know their leaders are corrupt stooges for imperial powers - doing their bidding - but never before has it been exposed so blatantly as the case with Egypt unwilling to open the Rafah border to aid or to allow Palestiniians out of harms way. This could be the straw that broke the camels back - and I'm hoping that is the case - but only time will tell.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
The Landlord Has Gone Crazy Again!
It's not a happy occasion I return to blogging here after a long absence. It's another familiar scene of the "landlord has gone crazy". There comes a point where you have to start taking Zionists at their own words. There is no doubt Israeli leaders have acted irrationally, erratically and shown all the signs they are crazy but is it "crazy like a fox" or are we witnessing a failed state managed by crazy people following an even crazier ideology? I believe it's the latter. What is the logic in bombing Gaza back 20-30 years other than sheer insanity. What is the logic in bombing a university? Or educational ministry buildings? Before the bombing, you had up to 60% of Palestinians unemployed and many have an education. Now Israel has bombed the universities and educational infrastructure of Gaza and as a result will inherit a neighbor that still has high unemployment but one that is less educated? So what was gained in terms of military advantage or providing security for Israel in the long term? How does that solve anything?
As for the rocket attacks by Palestinian resistance fighters, their purpose and logic was to force Israel to end the siege. You can say it was futile and will prove to be too costly for Palestinians or say it's a ineffective approach but there is a logic to it. People under a genocidal siege will be faced with a catch 22 situation. If they don't resist, they will starve to death - or worse, become totally dependent on Israel, the UN and everyone else for survival - and that's worse than being dead. To have Israel decide how much food is allowed to enter Gaza, how much power people get a day or who gets to travel abroad or when the crossings are opened or not. This is modern day slavery. Therefore, while all options before the Palestinians are bad, there is common sense logic to the option of resisting the siege. As for Israel, no actions seems to make any sense - other than the view you have a bully on steroids acting out in the most vile, reprehensible and brutish manner. As we saw with the Lebanon war back in 2006, where 1,200 Lebanese civilians were killed, over a million cluster bomblets were dropped and massive civilian infrastructure damaged - and all for what? What is the logic in waging a war that devastated a country and it's people to only make a deal that was on the table before the war started? Olmert released the so called "terrorist" Kuntar to retrieve the bodies of Israeli soldiers. He knew they were dead before he waged the war. He killed 1,200 Lebanese and lost 300 Israeli's to retrieve 3 dead bodies?
Clearly Israel has proven over and over again it is a rogue regime. This genocidal action against Gaza recently is another example in a long line of Israeli war crimes. It's hard not to conclude Israeli society is sick as well where militarism and chauvinism is the unofficial religion of the state.
I will continue to add my thoughts on developments in Palestine. Let us all hope for all concerned that sanity does prevail.
As for the rocket attacks by Palestinian resistance fighters, their purpose and logic was to force Israel to end the siege. You can say it was futile and will prove to be too costly for Palestinians or say it's a ineffective approach but there is a logic to it. People under a genocidal siege will be faced with a catch 22 situation. If they don't resist, they will starve to death - or worse, become totally dependent on Israel, the UN and everyone else for survival - and that's worse than being dead. To have Israel decide how much food is allowed to enter Gaza, how much power people get a day or who gets to travel abroad or when the crossings are opened or not. This is modern day slavery. Therefore, while all options before the Palestinians are bad, there is common sense logic to the option of resisting the siege. As for Israel, no actions seems to make any sense - other than the view you have a bully on steroids acting out in the most vile, reprehensible and brutish manner. As we saw with the Lebanon war back in 2006, where 1,200 Lebanese civilians were killed, over a million cluster bomblets were dropped and massive civilian infrastructure damaged - and all for what? What is the logic in waging a war that devastated a country and it's people to only make a deal that was on the table before the war started? Olmert released the so called "terrorist" Kuntar to retrieve the bodies of Israeli soldiers. He knew they were dead before he waged the war. He killed 1,200 Lebanese and lost 300 Israeli's to retrieve 3 dead bodies?
Clearly Israel has proven over and over again it is a rogue regime. This genocidal action against Gaza recently is another example in a long line of Israeli war crimes. It's hard not to conclude Israeli society is sick as well where militarism and chauvinism is the unofficial religion of the state.
I will continue to add my thoughts on developments in Palestine. Let us all hope for all concerned that sanity does prevail.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
The Annopolis Summit - what is it all about?
Let's put aside this upcoming conference and see the Bush record in it's totality. Look at all the areas where Bush intervened - in
So now these weak leaders are prepared to lick their wounds - when they failed to defeat the "hardliners" on the battlefield - they are attempting to defeat them in the political arena. They call for a conference - a way to present the "winners" on the battlefield as "losers" by isolating them - by not inviting them - and by lining up the "pro-western moderates" - like the good puppets they are - standing behind ole glory - and let me guess what Bush and company will be mostly talking about? Well, I will bet the farm, rather than Bush uttering anything meaningful on the P/I conflict, it will be a speech about his side being the peace loving, democracy seeking and human right abiding side, defeating the "terrorists" and dark vision promoting hate filled fanatics on the other side who are marching to Iranian orders ( gotta love the irony of an Empire pointing fingers at other states for exercising their influence for their self-interest). And of course, this show of force by the "moderates" - those invited by Bush and those following the script - represent a clear victory for the good guys.
All good and dandy but what about ending the 40 year Israeli occupation and creating a Palestinian state - well, "the parties themselves will have to negotiate" - so why come to America when the parties themselves are only 15 minute ride apart from Ramallah to Tel-Aviv?
Ahh, this is the kicker, once again, it's all show - not easy when you can't show a single success story on your record - but hey- we got a conference held in
Wonderful, but here is the reality, absent of real serious hammer like pressure on
So what now, time to accept the fact, the "hardliners" won. The so called "doves" , "moderates", "pro-western" or even something more laughable, the "Israeli peace camp", such distortion of reality can only go so far before reality imposes it's will.
Defeating the "hardliners", the "anti-peace", "anti-negotiation" , "anti-compromise" , "anti-returning land or anti-ending occupation crowd", "anti-two state solution" crowd is a necessary first step but everything Israel and America have done worked the opposite of that direction even though that was their intended aim( we are told). The methods
Having said all of that, if anyone thinks the only worry on the Israeli side are the blatant rejectionist party of Lieberman and Likud - they are simply ill informed of Israeli politics. Does anyone really believe Barak wants Olmert to succeed in delivering a peace deal
Who is kidding who here, Barak is eying the PM seat and he will be the biggest saboteur in this process. He has been already working to sabotage everything from day one. His refusal to ease conditions while Olmert makes promises to Abbas and Rice such actions will be taken are all politically motivated to insure failure.
The truth be told, despite what you keep reading about how polls show the majority of Palestinian and Israeli's want peace and are willing for compromise - both sides remain far apart on core issues. One can easily argue they are irreconcilable issues - and I'm one to argue that - but beyond that -
To highlight the deluded mind set of the Israeli state, just look at the debate over recognizing "
Thursday, September 13, 2007
The Power of Nightmares
A must see documentary that explains in detail the deception regarding "the war on terror". I found it very provocative and educational. It's no surprise such an eye-opening program will not be seen on any American media. This documentary is not about any so called "conspiracy theory" but an actual history lesson on Islamic extremism and neo-conservatism. The parallel paths both movements take is fascinating to observe and this documentary is great putting it all in it's proper historical context.
Saturday, August 4, 2007
American and Israeli plans will fail
Why Oblivion Looms for Abbas
Guest Column: Mark Perry offers 10 reasons why Hamas, rather than Abu Mazen and his U.S. backers will prevail in the struggle for Palestinian hearts and minds. The Islamists today represent the Palestinian mainstream, while Fatah is broken from top to bottom. Even more importantly, Abbas is increasingly isolated within his own organization, most of whose grassroots and mid-level leadership want nothing to do with the U.S. schemes on which Abbas has staked his future. By Halloween, expect Abbas to be either back in a unity government with Hamas, or else having departed the scene
By Mark Perry
In the summer of 1997 I found myself seated in the office of Yasser Arafat in Gaza. I had known Arafat for many years, and was a welcome visitor. Being an American and a friend gave me privileges. Others weighed their words, but I was constrained by no such requirement. So as he thumbed through a stack of papers, I pleaded clemency for a friend who had been under house arrest in Gaza for the better part of a year. The man, a prominent security official, had ordered Palestinian security forces to fire on a Hamas demonstration the summer before and Arafat, enraged, had ordered him home. “He made a mistake,” I said. “It’s time to bring him back.” Arafat ignored me.
There was a long moment of silence as Arafat’s aides eyed each other in discomfort. Arafat motioned to one of them and handed him a paper. This was typical of him. You could spend hours with the man in silence. He continued to pretend he hadn’t heard, so I plunged on. “The man is dedicated,” I said. Arafat stopped, his eyes widening, but he still refused to look at me. I waited many moments and pleaded my case again. “He’s a good man.” Finally, he spoke, but he bit off each word, making his point. “This is not your concern.” And he was silent again. “I think that it is,” I said. “He is a friend of mine.” Arafat was suddenly exasperated and locked me in his gaze, to emphasize his point: “He crossed a line.”
Those of us who know and understand something of Palestinian society were saddened by June’s Gaza troubles — the flickering YouTube films of Palestinian gunmen being dragged willy-nilly through the streets of the Strip seemed a talisman of lines crossed so many times they no longer existed. Palestinians have fought each other before — most notably in the Palestinian Civil War that raged in northern Lebanon in 1983 — but nothing like this. Palestinians themselves seemed to draw back, even recoil, from the violence. “Both sides made mistakes,” Hamas official Usamah Hamdan told me in Beirut in late June and there was sadness in his voice. “We are sorry for that.”
In the wake of these troubles, Palestinian President Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) cut ties with Hamas, declared an emergency government, suspended the workings of the Palestinian Legislative Council, arrested dozens of Hamas legislative members, clamped down on anti-government protests, purged critics in his own Fatah movement, and announced he would begin immediate talks with the Olmert government. The U.S reciprocated: it urged Israel to release hundreds of millions of dollars in tax monies, said it would work towards the creation of a Palestinian state, pressured Israel to ease travel restrictions in the West Bank, awarded the Abu Mazen government tens of millions of dollars in economic and security aid, urged Arab nations to support Abu Mazen’s political program, called on the EU to take similar actions, dispatched a team of experts to assess Palestinian needs, called for an international conference to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and conducted high-level talks with Arab nations to make certain their support for these programs was assured. The actions were breathtaking in their scope. They provided, for the first time in nearly a decade, the prospect for a political resolution of the daunting Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
And they have absolutely no prospect of success.
Instead, Abu Mazen will fail to solidify his position as President of the Palestinian Authority; the American program to support him will fail; there will be no international conference; and, within the next sixty to ninety days — and almost certainly by the end of the year — Abu Mazen and his colleagues will either be forced into exile or will take steps to reconstitute the national unity government that they have spent the last 60 days destroying.
And here’s why:
# 1. Palestinian society is not divided
Palestinian society is more united than it has been in years, in spite of what we see on our televisions or read in the American press. The “Gaza coup” was not launched in Gaza, but in Ramallah — and the forces that brought instability to the Strip were funded and armed by the United States. They did not represent Fatah or even a majority in Fatah, but rather a small minority of Fatah radicals. The vast majority of mainline forces in Fatah, and even a significant number in the Fatah Central Committee did not support the arming of the Preventive Security Services. The leader of the PSS, Mohammad Dahlan is now in exile and his opponents are calling for his arrest. The Palestinian people know this. They know their vote was overturned by Abu Mazen and the United States, and they resent it.
# 2. Hamas remains popular, and it is gaining strength
It is true, there have been some dips in the popularity of the movement in some areas, but the losses are not significant. And, remember, there is a tendency in the U.S. to consistently underestimate Hamas’s popularity, which I attribute to:
– a disbelief that Palestinians could support such an organization
– a belief in U.S.-funded Palestinian polling numbers
– the reputed secular nature of Palestinian society
– a tendency to overlook the traditional strength of Hamas during periods of confrontation, and
– the impact of the economic embargo.
My own (admittedly unscientific), belief is that Hamas’s strength is likely to grow. The movement’s base of support has widened significantly — from about 9 percent in the late 1980s to about 25 to 30 percent now, numbers that match up well to any well-established Western political party. While its parliamentary victory in January of 2006 was due largely to Fatah’s poor reputation, Hamas has not repeated Fatah’s mistakes: despite the clear temptations of power, it has provided as good a government as its resources have allowed — no stain of impropriety has touched its senior leadership. This remains its most significant achievement.
# 3. Hamas represents mainstream Palestinian society
Palestinian society is not secular, liberal, progressive and western. It is Arab, traditional, conservative and Muslim. Mahmoud Abbas, Salam Fayad, Saeb Erakat and Yasser Abed Rabbo are fine people — and they are friends of mine — but they do not represent mainstream Palestinian society. Hamas does. The election of Hamas and its continued strength is not a setback for Palestinian society, but a reflection of its growth. My own Hamiltonian tendencies are humbled. It is possible to understand America by visiting Boston, but I wouldn’t recommend it — any more than I would recommend that an American believe that Hanan Ashrawi is typically Palestinian. Americans aren’t governed from Nantucket but from Natchez, and Palestinians aren’t governed from Ramallah, but from Jubalya — and wishing it so doesn’t make it so. That Fatah was defeated is not simply a comment on their corruption, but on their inability to speak for the people of Palestine. It is for this that Hamas is likely to grow and prosper.
# 4. Hamas is is not innately or irrevocably wedded to violence
Hamas stood for an election and won. We decided to reverse the verdict of a democratic process, not them. There is certainly debate inside of Hamas on the efficacy of continuing the movement’s involvement in electoral politics. The loss of some popular support, the reversion to violence in Gaza, the inability of the movement to break the international boycott, emerging divisions inside Hamas itself, and the closing off of political options have sparked this internal debate. But I doubt that Hamas will abandon its current strategy in favor of violent confrontation, either with Fatah or with Israel. The view from Gaza may seem dark, perhaps the view is even darker in Damascus. But there is another side to the ledger, and it is as significant: Balancing Hamas’s strengths are Fatah’s continuing weaknesses — and those cannot be reversed with a simple infusion of our money.
# 5. From top to bottom, Fatah is broken
Fatah is weak, aging, corrupt, disorganized, and even more divided than Hamas; it is funded exclusively through outside sources; it lacks a clear political program and political vision; its leadership is out-of-touch, conference-bound, tethered to a past era; it is dependent for its survival on the United States and Israel (a fact of which Palestinian society is well aware, at the expense of Fatah’s credibility) it is at war with its own younger cadre (which are abandoning the movement). Its militant Tanzim grassroots are growing in strength, but are alienated from Fatah’s leadership, disenchanted with its corruption and, perhaps most importantly, is cooperating with Hamas. The Fatah grassroots is pushing hard, just now, for the long-delayed General Conference to reform the organization. Abu Mazen can throw Hamas legislators in jail — it will be much more difficult to throw members of his own party in jail, which is why …
# The political battle being waged in the West Bank now is being waged inside of Fatah
Abu Mazen’s power has been significantly eroded inside of his own organization. The recent meeting of the committee called to make an assessment of the Gaza troubles repudiated Abu Mazen’s appointees: Mohammad Dahlan, Rashid Abu Shabak and Tawfik Tarawi. Abu Mazen is within one vote of losing his Fatah power base. His closest aides (Salam Fayad, Saeb Erakat, Rafiq Husseini, Yasser Abed Rabbo) count for nothing in Fatah, because they have no vote in the organization. Abu Mazen’s plea to the Central Committee last Tuesday, that “my aides have told me my actions are legal,” brought laughter even from his closest supporters. Former Prime Minister Abu Alaa has refused to support him and Hani al-Hassan has denounced him. In response someone shot up Hassan’s house. He laughs: “They made sure I wasn’t here,” he told me. And the former national security advisor, Jabril Rajoub has called for Mohammad Dahlan’s arrest. Abu Mazen’s response has been to say he will hold national elections — but without allowing Hamas to run. And our president has conferred his blessing on this, calling Abu Mazen’s government “legitimate.” Truly, truly, truly, we are a light in the darkness, a city on a hill.
# 7. Abu Mazen is increasingly isolated
The non-payment of governmental salaries to Hamas members in the West Bank is causing deep disenchantment because it cuts across family and tribal lines. So it is that one brother, a Fatah member, is paid while another (a Hamas member) is not. Salam Fayad has thereby proven to be a good bean counter, but not much of a politician. He has set family against family, brother against brother. And doing that is deeply resented in the West Bank. So too, the security services are in a posture of near-revolt over the policy of continuing arrests of anti-Abu Mazen partisans. Posters have begun to appear in the West Bank, styling Abu Mazen a Palestinian Pinochet — or worse, an “Abu Musa” (the man whom Syrian President Hafez Assad sent to kill Arafat in Lebanon). The posters are being designed by Fatah, not Hamas. Do we really believe that the Palestinian police will continue to follow Abbas’s orders: to arrest Hamas activists because they do not meet the conditions of the Quartet? Because Hamas does not “recognize Israel?”
# 8. The united front of the U.S.-Israel and the Arab regimes is no match for Hamas in the battle for Palestinian support
Indeed, the much-vaunted united front being built by the U.S. against Hamas is something of a myth: The Egyptians and Saudis have quietly repudiated the U.S. program to overthrow Hamas, and instead have urged Fatah and Hamas to reconcile. Colin Powell has called for talks with the Hamas leadership, while Israel’s support for Abu Mazen remains predictably indifferent. (They’re no dummies – the Israelis, too, will end up talking to Hamas is my bet.) There are 542 roadblocks in the West Bank — the same number will be there tomorrow and next week and next month. Tell me I’m wrong. Israel has returned tax money collected for the Palestinians to the Palestinians, but not all of it — and it has trickled in. Do we really, really believe that Israel will suddenly rise up as one and say that they intend to endorse UN Resolutions 242 and 338? Or are they now quietly laughing into their tea and shaking their heads: we’re going to support Abu Mazen? We’re going to send him guns? We’re going to conduct talks with him and calculate that he will be able to produce competent and uncorrupt administration — and one that has the support of his people? Or are they will to see what we have failed: that the last time there was an election in Palestine Mr. Abu Mazen’s party lost. The U.S. program in Iraq is in a shambles, calm and stability are returning to Gaza, questions about the American program for Palestine are being raised in Washington. This is not a time for sudden political movement or a shift in strategy, it is a time for political calculation. Hamas knows it. Israel knows it. Egypt knows it. Saudi Arabia knows it. The only person who doesn’t seem to know it is George Bush.
# 9. Hamas’s reign in Gaza undermines the propaganda of its foes
Some U.S. politicians and Abu Mazen’s more alarmist allies like to paint the Hamas administration in Gaza as a kind of pro-Iranian Islamic State, but this hardly stands up to scrutiny. There is no enforcement of the veil or other conservative Islamic social laws, no Sharia council, no compulsion to attend the mosque. Stability has returned to Gaza. People are obeying the law, and feel secure. This is not a lesson lost on either Egypt or the Israelis. Which would they rather have — civil conflict or civil order?
# 10. Abu Mazen has crossed the line
Several years after my mild confrontation with Mr. Arafat in Gaza, I met with him at his headquarters in Ramallah. It was a bright early April morning and quite memorable for its beauty: just one day after the resolution of the Siege of the Church of the Nativity. Those in the church had, the day before, been sent out of the church to Europe — away from their families and into an involuntary exile. Their departure had been emotional: they had walked out of the church as their families, on the rooftops of Bethlehem, cheered and wept.
The next day I traveled very early to Ramallah to see Arafat to talk to him about the siege. When I arrived I was ushered into his upstairs office. It was just after dawn. I was exhausted, but I found Arafat in a good mood and open to my banter. “I think you crossed a line,” I told him. It was something I would not have dared to say at any other time, but he was smiling at me and so he nodded, as if humoring me. “Oh? he asked. “And what line would that be.” I had him, finally, and so I recited the rule, liturgically: “Palestinians do not send other Palestinians into exile,” I said. He looked at me and nodded and then looked down, suddenly sad. “Yes,” he said. “But I have another line,” and he reflected: “Palestinians do not send other Palestinians to Israeli jails.”
There are lines. Palestinians do not send other Palestinians into exile; Palestinians do not shoot other Palestinians; Palestinians do not betray other Palestinians, Palestinians do not resolve their political differences by gunfire, Palestinians do not collaborate with their enemies, do not betray their own people, Palestinians are not traitors to their own cause, Palestinians do not send Palestinians to Israeli jails. And at one time or another each of these lines has been crossed. But at no time, ever, has any Palestinian ever renounced the one principle — the one true commandment that has motivated every Palestinian patriot from Arafat to Abu Musa to Abu Nidal: that the Palestinian people are indivisible; that they cannot be divided.
Until now. By turning his back on the Palestinians in Gaza, but even actively seeking their impoverishment in the United Nations (as he did, shamefully, on Friday, when his diplomats blocked efforts to seek a Security Council statement on the humanitarian situation there), Abu Mazen has set out to divide the Palestinian nation, to set it against itself. And that line, in the end, cannot be crossed. And the fact that Abu Mazen has crossed it will, in the hearts and minds of the Palestinian people, make all the difference. There is only one Palestine and now, Abu Mazen is not a part of it.
Guest Column: Mark Perry offers 10 reasons why Hamas, rather than Abu Mazen and his U.S. backers will prevail in the struggle for Palestinian hearts and minds. The Islamists today represent the Palestinian mainstream, while Fatah is broken from top to bottom. Even more importantly, Abbas is increasingly isolated within his own organization, most of whose grassroots and mid-level leadership want nothing to do with the U.S. schemes on which Abbas has staked his future. By Halloween, expect Abbas to be either back in a unity government with Hamas, or else having departed the scene
By Mark Perry
In the summer of 1997 I found myself seated in the office of Yasser Arafat in Gaza. I had known Arafat for many years, and was a welcome visitor. Being an American and a friend gave me privileges. Others weighed their words, but I was constrained by no such requirement. So as he thumbed through a stack of papers, I pleaded clemency for a friend who had been under house arrest in Gaza for the better part of a year. The man, a prominent security official, had ordered Palestinian security forces to fire on a Hamas demonstration the summer before and Arafat, enraged, had ordered him home. “He made a mistake,” I said. “It’s time to bring him back.” Arafat ignored me.
There was a long moment of silence as Arafat’s aides eyed each other in discomfort. Arafat motioned to one of them and handed him a paper. This was typical of him. You could spend hours with the man in silence. He continued to pretend he hadn’t heard, so I plunged on. “The man is dedicated,” I said. Arafat stopped, his eyes widening, but he still refused to look at me. I waited many moments and pleaded my case again. “He’s a good man.” Finally, he spoke, but he bit off each word, making his point. “This is not your concern.” And he was silent again. “I think that it is,” I said. “He is a friend of mine.” Arafat was suddenly exasperated and locked me in his gaze, to emphasize his point: “He crossed a line.”
Those of us who know and understand something of Palestinian society were saddened by June’s Gaza troubles — the flickering YouTube films of Palestinian gunmen being dragged willy-nilly through the streets of the Strip seemed a talisman of lines crossed so many times they no longer existed. Palestinians have fought each other before — most notably in the Palestinian Civil War that raged in northern Lebanon in 1983 — but nothing like this. Palestinians themselves seemed to draw back, even recoil, from the violence. “Both sides made mistakes,” Hamas official Usamah Hamdan told me in Beirut in late June and there was sadness in his voice. “We are sorry for that.”
In the wake of these troubles, Palestinian President Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) cut ties with Hamas, declared an emergency government, suspended the workings of the Palestinian Legislative Council, arrested dozens of Hamas legislative members, clamped down on anti-government protests, purged critics in his own Fatah movement, and announced he would begin immediate talks with the Olmert government. The U.S reciprocated: it urged Israel to release hundreds of millions of dollars in tax monies, said it would work towards the creation of a Palestinian state, pressured Israel to ease travel restrictions in the West Bank, awarded the Abu Mazen government tens of millions of dollars in economic and security aid, urged Arab nations to support Abu Mazen’s political program, called on the EU to take similar actions, dispatched a team of experts to assess Palestinian needs, called for an international conference to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and conducted high-level talks with Arab nations to make certain their support for these programs was assured. The actions were breathtaking in their scope. They provided, for the first time in nearly a decade, the prospect for a political resolution of the daunting Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
And they have absolutely no prospect of success.
Instead, Abu Mazen will fail to solidify his position as President of the Palestinian Authority; the American program to support him will fail; there will be no international conference; and, within the next sixty to ninety days — and almost certainly by the end of the year — Abu Mazen and his colleagues will either be forced into exile or will take steps to reconstitute the national unity government that they have spent the last 60 days destroying.
And here’s why:
# 1. Palestinian society is not divided
Palestinian society is more united than it has been in years, in spite of what we see on our televisions or read in the American press. The “Gaza coup” was not launched in Gaza, but in Ramallah — and the forces that brought instability to the Strip were funded and armed by the United States. They did not represent Fatah or even a majority in Fatah, but rather a small minority of Fatah radicals. The vast majority of mainline forces in Fatah, and even a significant number in the Fatah Central Committee did not support the arming of the Preventive Security Services. The leader of the PSS, Mohammad Dahlan is now in exile and his opponents are calling for his arrest. The Palestinian people know this. They know their vote was overturned by Abu Mazen and the United States, and they resent it.
# 2. Hamas remains popular, and it is gaining strength
It is true, there have been some dips in the popularity of the movement in some areas, but the losses are not significant. And, remember, there is a tendency in the U.S. to consistently underestimate Hamas’s popularity, which I attribute to:
– a disbelief that Palestinians could support such an organization
– a belief in U.S.-funded Palestinian polling numbers
– the reputed secular nature of Palestinian society
– a tendency to overlook the traditional strength of Hamas during periods of confrontation, and
– the impact of the economic embargo.
My own (admittedly unscientific), belief is that Hamas’s strength is likely to grow. The movement’s base of support has widened significantly — from about 9 percent in the late 1980s to about 25 to 30 percent now, numbers that match up well to any well-established Western political party. While its parliamentary victory in January of 2006 was due largely to Fatah’s poor reputation, Hamas has not repeated Fatah’s mistakes: despite the clear temptations of power, it has provided as good a government as its resources have allowed — no stain of impropriety has touched its senior leadership. This remains its most significant achievement.
# 3. Hamas represents mainstream Palestinian society
Palestinian society is not secular, liberal, progressive and western. It is Arab, traditional, conservative and Muslim. Mahmoud Abbas, Salam Fayad, Saeb Erakat and Yasser Abed Rabbo are fine people — and they are friends of mine — but they do not represent mainstream Palestinian society. Hamas does. The election of Hamas and its continued strength is not a setback for Palestinian society, but a reflection of its growth. My own Hamiltonian tendencies are humbled. It is possible to understand America by visiting Boston, but I wouldn’t recommend it — any more than I would recommend that an American believe that Hanan Ashrawi is typically Palestinian. Americans aren’t governed from Nantucket but from Natchez, and Palestinians aren’t governed from Ramallah, but from Jubalya — and wishing it so doesn’t make it so. That Fatah was defeated is not simply a comment on their corruption, but on their inability to speak for the people of Palestine. It is for this that Hamas is likely to grow and prosper.
# 4. Hamas is is not innately or irrevocably wedded to violence
Hamas stood for an election and won. We decided to reverse the verdict of a democratic process, not them. There is certainly debate inside of Hamas on the efficacy of continuing the movement’s involvement in electoral politics. The loss of some popular support, the reversion to violence in Gaza, the inability of the movement to break the international boycott, emerging divisions inside Hamas itself, and the closing off of political options have sparked this internal debate. But I doubt that Hamas will abandon its current strategy in favor of violent confrontation, either with Fatah or with Israel. The view from Gaza may seem dark, perhaps the view is even darker in Damascus. But there is another side to the ledger, and it is as significant: Balancing Hamas’s strengths are Fatah’s continuing weaknesses — and those cannot be reversed with a simple infusion of our money.
# 5. From top to bottom, Fatah is broken
Fatah is weak, aging, corrupt, disorganized, and even more divided than Hamas; it is funded exclusively through outside sources; it lacks a clear political program and political vision; its leadership is out-of-touch, conference-bound, tethered to a past era; it is dependent for its survival on the United States and Israel (a fact of which Palestinian society is well aware, at the expense of Fatah’s credibility) it is at war with its own younger cadre (which are abandoning the movement). Its militant Tanzim grassroots are growing in strength, but are alienated from Fatah’s leadership, disenchanted with its corruption and, perhaps most importantly, is cooperating with Hamas. The Fatah grassroots is pushing hard, just now, for the long-delayed General Conference to reform the organization. Abu Mazen can throw Hamas legislators in jail — it will be much more difficult to throw members of his own party in jail, which is why …
# The political battle being waged in the West Bank now is being waged inside of Fatah
Abu Mazen’s power has been significantly eroded inside of his own organization. The recent meeting of the committee called to make an assessment of the Gaza troubles repudiated Abu Mazen’s appointees: Mohammad Dahlan, Rashid Abu Shabak and Tawfik Tarawi. Abu Mazen is within one vote of losing his Fatah power base. His closest aides (Salam Fayad, Saeb Erakat, Rafiq Husseini, Yasser Abed Rabbo) count for nothing in Fatah, because they have no vote in the organization. Abu Mazen’s plea to the Central Committee last Tuesday, that “my aides have told me my actions are legal,” brought laughter even from his closest supporters. Former Prime Minister Abu Alaa has refused to support him and Hani al-Hassan has denounced him. In response someone shot up Hassan’s house. He laughs: “They made sure I wasn’t here,” he told me. And the former national security advisor, Jabril Rajoub has called for Mohammad Dahlan’s arrest. Abu Mazen’s response has been to say he will hold national elections — but without allowing Hamas to run. And our president has conferred his blessing on this, calling Abu Mazen’s government “legitimate.” Truly, truly, truly, we are a light in the darkness, a city on a hill.
# 7. Abu Mazen is increasingly isolated
The non-payment of governmental salaries to Hamas members in the West Bank is causing deep disenchantment because it cuts across family and tribal lines. So it is that one brother, a Fatah member, is paid while another (a Hamas member) is not. Salam Fayad has thereby proven to be a good bean counter, but not much of a politician. He has set family against family, brother against brother. And doing that is deeply resented in the West Bank. So too, the security services are in a posture of near-revolt over the policy of continuing arrests of anti-Abu Mazen partisans. Posters have begun to appear in the West Bank, styling Abu Mazen a Palestinian Pinochet — or worse, an “Abu Musa” (the man whom Syrian President Hafez Assad sent to kill Arafat in Lebanon). The posters are being designed by Fatah, not Hamas. Do we really believe that the Palestinian police will continue to follow Abbas’s orders: to arrest Hamas activists because they do not meet the conditions of the Quartet? Because Hamas does not “recognize Israel?”
# 8. The united front of the U.S.-Israel and the Arab regimes is no match for Hamas in the battle for Palestinian support
Indeed, the much-vaunted united front being built by the U.S. against Hamas is something of a myth: The Egyptians and Saudis have quietly repudiated the U.S. program to overthrow Hamas, and instead have urged Fatah and Hamas to reconcile. Colin Powell has called for talks with the Hamas leadership, while Israel’s support for Abu Mazen remains predictably indifferent. (They’re no dummies – the Israelis, too, will end up talking to Hamas is my bet.) There are 542 roadblocks in the West Bank — the same number will be there tomorrow and next week and next month. Tell me I’m wrong. Israel has returned tax money collected for the Palestinians to the Palestinians, but not all of it — and it has trickled in. Do we really, really believe that Israel will suddenly rise up as one and say that they intend to endorse UN Resolutions 242 and 338? Or are they now quietly laughing into their tea and shaking their heads: we’re going to support Abu Mazen? We’re going to send him guns? We’re going to conduct talks with him and calculate that he will be able to produce competent and uncorrupt administration — and one that has the support of his people? Or are they will to see what we have failed: that the last time there was an election in Palestine Mr. Abu Mazen’s party lost. The U.S. program in Iraq is in a shambles, calm and stability are returning to Gaza, questions about the American program for Palestine are being raised in Washington. This is not a time for sudden political movement or a shift in strategy, it is a time for political calculation. Hamas knows it. Israel knows it. Egypt knows it. Saudi Arabia knows it. The only person who doesn’t seem to know it is George Bush.
# 9. Hamas’s reign in Gaza undermines the propaganda of its foes
Some U.S. politicians and Abu Mazen’s more alarmist allies like to paint the Hamas administration in Gaza as a kind of pro-Iranian Islamic State, but this hardly stands up to scrutiny. There is no enforcement of the veil or other conservative Islamic social laws, no Sharia council, no compulsion to attend the mosque. Stability has returned to Gaza. People are obeying the law, and feel secure. This is not a lesson lost on either Egypt or the Israelis. Which would they rather have — civil conflict or civil order?
# 10. Abu Mazen has crossed the line
Several years after my mild confrontation with Mr. Arafat in Gaza, I met with him at his headquarters in Ramallah. It was a bright early April morning and quite memorable for its beauty: just one day after the resolution of the Siege of the Church of the Nativity. Those in the church had, the day before, been sent out of the church to Europe — away from their families and into an involuntary exile. Their departure had been emotional: they had walked out of the church as their families, on the rooftops of Bethlehem, cheered and wept.
The next day I traveled very early to Ramallah to see Arafat to talk to him about the siege. When I arrived I was ushered into his upstairs office. It was just after dawn. I was exhausted, but I found Arafat in a good mood and open to my banter. “I think you crossed a line,” I told him. It was something I would not have dared to say at any other time, but he was smiling at me and so he nodded, as if humoring me. “Oh? he asked. “And what line would that be.” I had him, finally, and so I recited the rule, liturgically: “Palestinians do not send other Palestinians into exile,” I said. He looked at me and nodded and then looked down, suddenly sad. “Yes,” he said. “But I have another line,” and he reflected: “Palestinians do not send other Palestinians to Israeli jails.”
There are lines. Palestinians do not send other Palestinians into exile; Palestinians do not shoot other Palestinians; Palestinians do not betray other Palestinians, Palestinians do not resolve their political differences by gunfire, Palestinians do not collaborate with their enemies, do not betray their own people, Palestinians are not traitors to their own cause, Palestinians do not send Palestinians to Israeli jails. And at one time or another each of these lines has been crossed. But at no time, ever, has any Palestinian ever renounced the one principle — the one true commandment that has motivated every Palestinian patriot from Arafat to Abu Musa to Abu Nidal: that the Palestinian people are indivisible; that they cannot be divided.
Until now. By turning his back on the Palestinians in Gaza, but even actively seeking their impoverishment in the United Nations (as he did, shamefully, on Friday, when his diplomats blocked efforts to seek a Security Council statement on the humanitarian situation there), Abu Mazen has set out to divide the Palestinian nation, to set it against itself. And that line, in the end, cannot be crossed. And the fact that Abu Mazen has crossed it will, in the hearts and minds of the Palestinian people, make all the difference. There is only one Palestine and now, Abu Mazen is not a part of it.
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