Thursday, November 22, 2007

The Annopolis Summit - what is it all about?

Let's put aside this upcoming conference and see the Bush record in it's totality. Look at all the areas where Bush intervened - in Georgia, Ukraine and Lebanon? All these places have gridlock and are in serious political crises. The opposition forces are working at reversing the course by pushing out the "pro-Western" puppet regimes the Bush administration put in power. This trend has reached Gaza. The WB appears to be Bush's last stand - his Waterloo. So this conference is more about Bush than about solving the P/I conflict. I have no doubt Bush would love nothing better than to end his reign with some kind of "peace deal" that he knows his legacy desperately needs but he also knows he lacks the political capital to bring it about. All in all, this is a sad pathetic desperation play. At the height of his political prowess, he opted to follow the mad policy of the neo-cons - which basically says "let them fight it out" and "don't restrain Israel". Six years later and after the fighting, it's Hamas that is standing tall and Olmert and Israel looking weak( when you add the Gaza withdrawal and Lebanon fiasco).

So now these weak leaders are prepared to lick their wounds - when they failed to defeat the "hardliners" on the battlefield - they are attempting to defeat them in the political arena. They call for a conference - a way to present the "winners" on the battlefield as "losers" by isolating them - by not inviting them - and by lining up the "pro-western moderates" - like the good puppets they are - standing behind ole glory - and let me guess what Bush and company will be mostly talking about? Well, I will bet the farm, rather than Bush uttering anything meaningful on the P/I conflict, it will be a speech about his side being the peace loving, democracy seeking and human right abiding side, defeating the "terrorists" and dark vision promoting hate filled fanatics on the other side who are marching to Iranian orders ( gotta love the irony of an Empire pointing fingers at other states for exercising their influence for their self-interest). And of course, this show of force by the "moderates" - those invited by Bush and those following the script - represent a clear victory for the good guys.

All good and dandy but what about ending the 40 year Israeli occupation and creating a Palestinian state - well, "the parties themselves will have to negotiate" - so why come to America when the parties themselves are only 15 minute ride apart from Ramallah to Tel-Aviv?

Ahh, this is the kicker, once again, it's all show - not easy when you can't show a single success story on your record - but hey- we got a conference held in Annapolis?

Wonderful, but here is the reality, absent of real serious hammer like pressure on Israel, nothing will move. Bush has yet to show he has the balls or the inclination to go down that route. Former SOS Baker exhibited the kind of toughness that was needed ( although AIPAC and Likud and company won that battle in the end) - telling Shamir and his regime if they were interested in peace to call him but Condi can't play that role for the simple fact she has slept in the devils den for too long and ate of it's bitter fruits - and that includes Bush.

So what now, time to accept the fact, the "hardliners" won. The so called "doves" , "moderates", "pro-western" or even something more laughable, the "Israeli peace camp", such distortion of reality can only go so far before reality imposes it's will.

Defeating the "hardliners", the "anti-peace", "anti-negotiation" , "anti-compromise" , "anti-returning land or anti-ending occupation crowd", "anti-two state solution" crowd is a necessary first step but everything Israel and America have done worked the opposite of that direction even though that was their intended aim( we are told). The methods Israel and America used, starvation, sanctions, isolation, arming the "good guys" and everything in between only insured a defeat for the so called "moderates".

Having said all of that, if anyone thinks the only worry on the Israeli side are the blatant rejectionist party of Lieberman and Likud - they are simply ill informed of Israeli politics. Does anyone really believe Barak wants Olmert to succeed in delivering a peace deal?

Who is kidding who here, Barak is eying the PM seat and he will be the biggest saboteur in this process. He has been already working to sabotage everything from day one. His refusal to ease conditions while Olmert makes promises to Abbas and Rice such actions will be taken are all politically motivated to insure failure.

The truth be told, despite what you keep reading about how polls show the majority of Palestinian and Israeli's want peace and are willing for compromise - both sides remain far apart on core issues. One can easily argue they are irreconcilable issues - and I'm one to argue that - but beyond that - Israel has never accepted or come to grips with its limited options on many questions. To this day, Israeli leaders continue to believe force alone can delay the inevitable.

To highlight the deluded mind set of the Israeli state, just look at the debate over recognizing "Israel as a Jewish state". Why should we care if Israel is a "Jewish state" or Chinese state, get out of our lands, end the occupation, treat our Palestinian brothers in Israel fairly and equally under the law - prosper and be happy. But there is something terribly neurotic about all this silly debate. It highlights a pathology that seems hell bent on self-destruction.